Better Safe than Sorry

Better Safe than Sorry... is not a Mantra, its a tool for smart investment opportunities.

Let's understand why in an economy like India it will work.

Investors are always confused to invest in Stocks/Mutual fund, or bank fixed deposit/bond etc etc.
Especially when interest rates fall, shares tend to move in opposite direction. In India shares prices have fallen with the Sensex at a near 13 month low and interest rates have followed. A year back it was easy to get an interest rate of 9.25 per cent on a deposit at State Bank of India. Today, the maximum interest rate that one can get is 8 per cent. Clearly, in the last one year interest rates and share prices have fallen. In fact, even gold has fallen in the last one year.

Choosing between shares and fixed deposits?

The question now is: If both are falling where to put money. In 2015, the Sensex has thus far given negative returns. On Jan 1, 2015, the Sensex closed at 27,507 points. We are nearly 2000 points below those levels at Thursday's close of 25,622 points. Many analysts see the Sensex EPS at around 1450 for the financial year 2015-16. This translates into a price to earnings ratio of around 17.6 times one year forward earnings. This makes Sensex valuations at long term averages, which means it is fairly valued at current levels. So, after a nearly 14 per cent fall on the Sensex from the highs of 30,000 points in March, the markets are still not a screaming buy. Hence, if you think that after the fall you should be buying shares at these levels, you could certainly nibble selectively as the valuations are fair. Selective purchases can be done and if there is a further reaction in stocks of around 5-10 per cent, it would be an excellent opportunity to buy into blue chip stocks like ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. If you have fixed deposits which have been placed almost a year back at interest rates of 9.25 per cent and more for the longer term, it would be unwise to break them and put money in shares, since these have been locked at high interest rates. If you want to buy shares you can start nibbling selectively and in case the market falls lower from here, you can keep buying stocks at lower levels and averaging your costs. Please do not buy shares in large quantities until the US Fed meeting ends on Sept 17. This would give you a clear indication on where interest rates are headed in the US. If there is a hike in interest rates in the US on Sept 17, you could see massive sell-off in Indian markets. This would give you an ideal opportunity to buy into shares. For the time being just hold onto cash for at least a week.

Confidence v/s Will Power

The Only reason I am uploading this piece so soon in our season; is because this is the key to everything you do ...not only in market but in real life as well.

Since last few months working with few FII and fund managers; i have got a chance to learn something more in-depth and come to "in terms" with this ideology

There are three types of confidence:

•  False/Imaginary Confidence

• Temporary/On-Off Confidence

• True Confidence

False confidence —  This type of person will talk big and poses like a big shot. he often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to message their own ego and discomfort, and the outcome is terrible sometimes as it leads to busting there trading account.

Temporary confidence — Which is conditional on recent performance. This type of person's self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L.  When they are in a good run, they feel confident and like to take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.

 True confidence — This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust.This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome. Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing so over time has a positive impact on results.  The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment.  This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life.

In my many years of experience and learning from it, I’ve discovered confidence is a major part of the foundation for discipline.

Why is self-trust and resilience in the face of disappointment the  foundation for discipline? 

Disappointment in trading, in it’s myriad of  manifestations – missing out, leaving big money on the table,  taking a loss, etc – is inevitable for even the best traders. It’s an elemental fact that traders who  understand this, internalize it, and make it a part of their trading strategy are the most successful.

 Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about  what really underlies  discipline. And now you know.

 Are you surprised it’s not will-power? Will-power is not sustainable, it also results in fatigue by significantly reducing glucose (blood sugar levels).

In fact, empirical research shows that extended use of will-power results in cognitive fatigue and lower glucose levels. And cognitive or mental fatigue is dangerous for a trader, it makes us susceptible to making the kind of mistakes we regret later.

 Now that you know that will-power is not enough, do you want to develop the necessary ingredients for discipline?

Stay tuned for next post with market update and insight.

WELCOME BACK FOLKS !!!

Hello Everyone!!!!!

Welcome Back Friends....we have lot of new exiting things this season.

WHAT -  The purpose of restarting this blog is to identify analysis and evaluate the role of knowledge in financial market based on heuriskein method with excel based arithmetical progression within a given time frame, probability of various permutations & combinations;  also known as heuristics algorithms or as modern science would name it AI "Artificial Intelligence"

WHEN / WHY - As you know today among-st the top groups of TV channels aired today most of then would be related to financial market. An industry that has more then 7+ channels dedicated 24 * 7 to share and express views of experts on global market outlook as well as local... just imagine the media info floating everywhere & anywhere ... day in and day out.

WHERE - More than 5000 Registered Brokers, 5 Lac Sub-Broker, 50 Lac Sub Dealers ... Contributing more than 27% of National Employment…Indian Financial Market is the 2nd largest with regards to monthly volume in Trillions of dollars… HR department in any (global & local = glocal) ... GLO-CAL Financial Market have always stressed on the importance of getting investors with not only the right book knowledge but also people who fit into the advisory criteria for appreciation of your portfolio.

HOW - Now just comprehend how advisable it is to gain adequate knowledge before start trading and investing especially insights to analyze key info and evaluate day trading behavior, and provide recommendations in order to improve it. This Blog will also reveal the importance of the direct relation between goals and investments. In order to gain a strategic profit making system in our case AI and exercise the strategic goals of investing, the day trading objectives should be directly aligned and followed with simple and realistic follow ups on timely basis as well....... need for AI is at its prime and will be part of necessity in near future to come.  

The mission and vision statements into one statement called “Our Future” working hand in hand and aligned with profit making objectives is the bottom line for this BLOG!!!

trade

TRADERS’ BIGGEST PROBLEM

Trading is likely the most exciting way to make a living and/or accumulate a fortune. You are your own boss and your own worst enemy. You alone must deal with the frustration of your own choices. If you lose, there is no one else to blame. You made the losing decision, even if that decision was to let someone else make your decision or to follow someone else’s approach. On the other hand, if you win, don’t have to say “Thank you” to anyone. You are not obliged to anyone but yourself. There is no politics nor anyone to whom you must cater. You are truly “sliding down the razor blade of life.” 

But here is the problem. Most of the time, the market goes nowhere. Only 25 to 40 percent of the time does the market trend, during the remaining 60 to 75 percent of the time the market goes nowhere. Most professional traders make nearly all of their profits in a trending market.

Here is our problem: we don’t want to spend out time entering and exiting a market that is going nowhere. If the market is going nowhere, then the opportunity is NO-WHERE. We want to change that to opportunity is NOW-HERE.

Trader's Biggest Problem

TRADERS’ BIGGEST PROBLEM

Trading is likely the most exciting way to make a living and/or accumulate a fortune. You are your own boss and your own worst enemy. You alone must deal with the frustration of your own choices. If you lose, there is no one else to blame. You made the losing decision, even if that decision was to let someone else make your decision or to follow someone else’s approach. On the other hand, if you win, don’t have to say “Thank you” to anyone. You are not obliged to anyone but yourself. There is no politics nor anyone to whom you must cater. You are truly “sliding down the razor blade of life.” 

But here is the problem. Most of the time, the market goes nowhere. Only 25 to 40 percent of the time does the market trend, during the remaining 60 to 75 percent of the time the market goes nowhere. Most professional traders make nearly all of their profits in a trending market.

Here is our problem: we don’t want to spend out time entering and exiting a market that is going nowhere. If the market is going nowhere, then the opportunity is NO-WHERE. We want to change that to opportunity is NOW-HERE.

Nifty Futures for Monday 14 Nov 2011

Mostly Nifty Traders (Almost 85-90%) end up in losses and this lost amount is transferred to other 10% who make profit. So, you can imagine, the market is not generating any new money, its the money lost by 90% investor that gets distributed to those 10% winning traders. Stock market is just facilitating the transfer of money from indiscipline speculators to disciplined and systematic traders. This is the only reason, why you will find most of the traders/ investors (90%) always complaining about the market and their losses. It is up to you now think and decide which side you want to be.

Technical view for Nifty Fut on Monday:
No trade between 5221 to 5188 (to avoid Traps)
Buy Above 5221 for tgt of 5242 - 5266 - 5288 - 5311
Sell below 5188 for tgt of 5168 - 5151 - 5127 - 5098

For Free Trial please email us at j2k_matrix@yahoo.com

Nifty Futures for Friday 11-11-11

11-11-11 that to on a Friday ...yup its 11th of November 2011 and the time to watch out is 11:11am/pm (to be precise 11 sec as well) history in making ...such an opportunity comes only once a millennium ....enjoy the moment.

Back to business; we have the most important IIP data, weekly closing & top of it global weakness It A Ly

Lets just re-vist 1st Nov 2011 (1-11-11) when Greek PM announced referendum and immediately next day J2K gave following views:

Technical view on Nifty Futures for 2/11/2011:
No trade between 5235 and 5268(to avoid whipsaws)
Buy above 5268 with SL of 5256 for targets of 5294-5312-5331-5349Sell below 5235 with SL of 5260 for targets of 5222-5204-5186-5168

Guess what....the range was test for 10 days and we are back to the same point....it's all magic trading.

We have to adapted to our surrounding and the need of the hour demands a good swing trader and cherry picking style of investments.

Subscribers stay tuned for in-depth analysis.

Regards

The new begining 11-11-11        



Nifty Futures for Wednesday 9th Nov 2011

First Greek now Italy... I mean one decade we talked about African nations, then for one decade we dragged the 9/11 issues of U.S. and now one decade for EURO Problem ....Just pause for a second and think.... what's next - ASIA !!!!

Today Nifty will open flat or gap up and may stay that way through out the session.

Technical View on Nifty Fut for 9/11/11

No Trade between 5301 and 5327 (to avoid traps)

Buy Nifty Fut above 5327 with SL of 5311 for targets of 5349-5388-5404-5451

Sell Nifty Fut below 5301 with SL of 5316 for targets of 5281-5266-5248-5222

Nifty Futures for Tuesday 8th Nov 2011

The global trends will continue to dictate Indian markets.  Possibility of gap down opening is high and the rest of the day could be highly volatile.

Technical view on Nifty Futures for 8/11/2011:

No trade between 5312 and 5288 (to avoid traps)
Buy above 5312 with SL of 5294 for targets of 5331-5349-5404
Sell below 5288 with SL of 5301 for targets of 5264-5222-5190-5151

Nifty Futures for Wednesday 2nd Nov 2011

Greeks referendum plan can be termed a modern "blackmail".

The global events could take its toll on indian markets as well. But this is the time we need to step up and like US make sure that our markets emerges as a winner. For that we need retail participation and less of PANIC (mad selling). 

Hence we all make efforts to provide free consultancy and insides to our market so that people dont get panic.

Technical view on Nifty for 2/11/2011:

No trade between 5235 and 5268(to avoid whipsaws)

Buy above 5268 with SL of 5256 for targets of 5294-5312-5331-5349

Sell below 5235 with SL of 5260 for targets of 5222-5204-5186-5168

    

The future of our economy lies on how we handle this global event; hence market could slip to 4700 again or revive till 5600 as well. Just wait and watch.

Nifty Futures for Tuesday 1st Nov 2011

Today's session will be full of suspense....and a welcome surprise towards the end (Nifty may close neutral or positive)

Now the most important thing for retail investors is that many midcap stocks are bitten down to penny stock level which can give very high returns in quick time. Smart money should now be all out to buy selected stock in the midcap space. Today Essar ports and LML were the just one of these examples.

Now watch Dolphin Offshore tomorrow as our operator sources indicated some huge buy orders for the stocks. So diwali bumper offer still continues....watch fireworks tomorrow. Buy Dolphin Offshore @ cmp 108 SL of 103 for target of 128++


Nifty Futures for 01/11/11No trade between 5337 and 5355 (to avoid trap)
Buy above 5355 with SL of 5338 for targets of 5384-5401-5422-5451
Sell below 5337 with SL of 5348 for targets of 5301-5282-5251-5222


Out Performers for today
----------------------------------
IT, Auto, Pharma, Infra, Large Caps FMCG

Under performers for today
------------------------------------
PSU and some sort of consolidation in MID-CAPS